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Market: supply-side reform is the key

Click:655 Time:2017-05-25

In 2016, according to the latest figures show the container transport demand grew by 2.7%, and the ship supply rose by only 1.3%, which means that the basic market equilibrium is improved for the first time since 2011. The main reason for the improvement is that the shipowners took the decisive step of selling excess capacity and dismantling the ship. Shipowners' revenues are expected to rise in the near term.
Between 2012 and 2016, the average annual growth rate for container transportation was 3.4 percent. The shipping industry has taken a while to get used to the new and low level of growth. The basic market situation is even worse in every year for more than needed. In 2016, compared with the past four years, the situation has improved.
Demand for containerized goods is already higher than it was in 2015, and demand for capacity has improved. Rental rates have changed dramatically since BIMCO's container shipping market report three months ago. Since mid-february, rents for small and medium-sized ships have risen sharply. But the reason for the increase is unclear.
Although in the first 2 to 3 months of this year, the Chinese traditional Spring Festival is still a negative influence on the individual market data, but most of the trade situation in 2017 there has been a good place to start.
The actual trend of trade growth is reflected in the march data. The BIMCO's own growth index on the west coast of the United States showed that data for January and February fell 2.2 percent from a year earlier. The BIMCO's own east coast growth index is up 9.4%. Overall, U.S. imports of container goods grew by 2.8 percent.
At the same time, the container trade statistics (CTS), according to a report in the far east to Europe's trade grew by 5.2%, fell 9.2% in February, a 0.9% reduction in total trade demand.
Since March 2016, the total number of container ships worldwide has been reduced by 100. Large ship delivery, small vessels and dismantling the strong trend shows that from 2011 since the start of the global container fleet on the capacity of the growth rate has reached 40%, but only 3.3% increase in the number.
Because the container fleet is divided into main ship and smaller feeder, so less than 3000 TEU feeder vessel and narrow ship (panamax vessels), a large number of capacity is decreasing.
Over the past four years, more than 800, 000 TEU ships have been disassembled. That is equivalent to half the capacity of all container ships in the world at the time. However, the capacity of container ships around the world remains at 3.2 million TEU (equivalent to 16 per cent of all ships' capacity). That's down from 3.9 million TEU four years ago, or 24 percent of all shipping capacity.
Orders for new shipbuilding in 2016 are low, and the trend extends to 2017. So far only eight ships have been ordered, and all are small vessels built at Chinese shipyards (1,750-2,150 TEU).
Three million of the new shipbuilding orders are still in the undelivered state, with 86 per cent expected to be delivered in 2017 and 2018. More than 9,400 TEU is expected to deliver 80% of its capacity in 2017. The elimination of the ship on alternative routes will continue.
BIMCO expects the container fleet to grow by 2.9 per cent this year, assuming that the capacity of the 450,000 TEU will be dismantled in 2017 and the capacity of 1m TEU will be delivered. If the goal is to be achieved, the existing dismantling rate must be eased and the speed of delivery must be increased. But both assumptions are likely to be realised only in a recovering market. In fact, the market has already improved.
2017 delivery quantity has achieved 152800 TEU, offset is sold and dismantling of 195555 TEU container fleet is still shrinking, suggesting that today's container fleet size smaller than at the beginning.
According to Alphaliner statistics, as of April 3, 2017, unused 970000 TEU container ship has been (accounting for 4.8% of the total capacity), compared with the beginning of the year close to 1.6 million TEU idle has a sharp decline. The number of empty container ships has declined. Most notably, 130 of the 3,000-6,000 TEU containers were idle in the first half of the year, and by early April had fallen to 58.
2017 has made a solid foundation for developing demand and restraining fleet growth. It turns out that 2016 is a turbulent year. Many alliances were dissolved and new alliances formed; The failure of a liner company forced shipowners to cut back on excess capacity. On the one hand, the benefits of the small flotilla are immediate, and it remains to be seen whether the new alliance will be profitable.
BIMCO expects the container shipping industry to continuously optimize the transport network and improve efficiency. Every member of the alliance who wants to make a profit cuts costs as much as possible and makes full use of available fleets. Because cutting costs is an important tool for the liner companies, it is not the only indicator of the right price.
The most important thing in 2017 is to see what the impact of the new alliance will be. The four alliances of 16 companies have become three coalitions of 11 companies, which will surely lead to rapid changes. The three new alliances control 77 per cent of the world's container ships and 96 per cent of trade between east and west.
Before the little excitement, we must always remember that 57% of the world's container shipping demand comes from non-east-west trade. A sharp decline in trade between the east and the west would have an impact on the trade. Another two-tier market was born.